2025
Observing Industry Rotation Through Data: Deconstructing the Leading and Lagging Relationship Between Shipping and Semiconductors
In investment practice, industry rotation remains a core strategy for capital allocation and stock selection. As the economic cycle evolves, capital often shifts from leading sectors to lagging ones, creating a structural rotation across industries. For example, in the early stages of economic recovery, cyclical sectors like shipping and steel tend to react first. As the economy expands and corporate capital expenditures rise, growth-oriented sectors such as semiconductors and technology often take the lead.
While this rotation logic is widely referenced in macroeconomic analysis, accurately identifying the starting and ending points of such trends requires support from quantitative tools and empirical data. This article analyzes historical data from various industry indices and applies statistical tools such as Transfer Entropy and rolling correlation coefficients to examine whether stable lead-lag relationships exist between sectors. It also explores the potential role of economic indicators, such as business cycle signal lights, in shaping inter-sector dynamics.