TCRI™_Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index

TCRI

TCRI™ employs a semi-expert procedure, a quantitative model, and manual determination. The methodology is public, transparent, and with discriminatory power, which provides a reference for financial institutions in investment and lending.

Key Features

Basis and scope of the rating

  • Uses public information as the basis; the information is public, complete, verifiable, and is not guided by companies.
  • The scope of rating covers the majority of public companies, and the scope is much wider than any other domestic rating institution.

Key Benefits

Influence of TCRI™

  • TCRI™ is the main index adopted by banks when making lending decisions and has over 90% share in the domestic banking market.
  • An important basis for securities firms to make investments.
  • Recognized as the most representative credit risk index by domestic academic and research institutions.

Key Advantages

The effectiveness of TCRI™ rating results is periodically validated.

  • Warning Ability: the discriminatory power and default rate validate whether or not the rating system can effectively distinguish between companies with different credit risks.
  • Stability: deviation of rating results are examined for mid-term and long-term lending and investment decisions.
  • External benchmark: in addition to internal validation, the default rate is compared with external credit rating institutions.

TCRI™ Rating Method and Procedure

Rating method and procedure

The semi-expert model is mainly used based on a quantitative model and supported by manual determination. It is divided into three steps. 

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TCRI™ Rating

The rating is divided into 1-9 levels, and Default.

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Quantitative Model

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Manual Determination

Manual determination mainly includes the following three aspects:

A: Accounting Information

Verify the reasonableness of accounting estimates (accounting analysis and quality of financial statements; financial analysis).

I: Industry Prospective

Consider the macroeconomic environment and industry trends, including the company’s competitive position in the industry.

M: Management Risk

Evaluate changes in management, shareholding structure, investment strategy, and risk preferences.

Warning ability/Discriminatory power (ROC)>90% or above:

Overall ROC of the TCRI™ in the past 10 years was 88%-97% and an average of 93%, which surpasses the standard of 70% in the Corporate Credit Rating Model Technical Manual.

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TCRI™ default rate in the past 10 years:

The number of companies that default and default rate meet expectations. With a lower level (i.e., higher risk), the number of companies that default and the default rate increase.

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Stability: One-year average transition matrix of TCRI™ (2000-2016)

On average 70%-80% of levels are maintained for 1 year, which is near the standards of S&P and Moody’s. Also, the relatively high fluctuation of high-risk levels meets expectations.

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TCRI™ v.s. Other credit rating institutions

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