2025
Turning sector rotation into strategy: Applying industry sequencing to build a quantitative backtesting model
In the context of sector rotation, we have observed an intriguing phenomenon: the strengthening of the shipping index often appears to precede the rally in semiconductors. If such a relationship can be verified and transformed into an actionable logic, it may serve as a valuable clue for investment decisions.
Building on the empirical analysis presented in the previous article, “Observing Sector Rotation through Data: Deconstructing the Leading and Lagging Relationship between Shipping and Semiconductors,” this paper further explores how the hypothesis of “shipping leading, semiconductors following” can be translated into a concrete asset allocation strategy. We integrate business cycle indicators, industry performance metrics, and temporal conditions to construct a backtesting framework that simulates historical trading scenarios. By evaluating the strategy’s performance, we aim to address a central question: if shipping truly signals upcoming movements in semiconductors, how should we ride this relay race?