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Gabriel Watson  is a well-known American growth-momentum portfolio manager. In his early career, he worked at Morgan Stanley Investment Management and William O’Neil & Co., where he accumulated extensive market research experience. Since joining Black Rose Capital Management in 1998, Watson has broken away from the confines of traditional value investing and developed a systematic, rule-based stock-picking method centered on “revenue momentum and price strength.” He calls this framework “The Machine.” In an environment characterized by rapid information flow and swift capital rotation, this approach has enabled him to capture the powerful upward moves of leading stocks.

In our previous article" Shipping Leads, Semiconductors Follow? "we identified a recurring pattern in Taiwan’s market: rallies in the shipping sector often precede gains in semiconductor stocks. This article builds on that insight by transforming the observed rotation sequence into a quantitative investment strategy.

In the previous study, we examined the Capital Gain Overhang (CGO) factor, designed to capture the behavioral bias known as the Disposition Effect. By measuring the gap between current market prices and investors’ average cost basis, CGO quantifies unrealized gains and losses at the market level. Empirical tests in Taiwan’s equity market confirmed that CGO is a meaningful predictor of future returns: high-CGO stocks consistently outperformed low-CGO stocks, generating significant positive alpha beyond standard Fama–French models, especially over medium- to long-term horizons.

The origins of the momentum anomaly have long been debated, with multiple competing explanations. Among them, one of the most influential behavioral interpretations attributes momentum to the Disposition Effect, a systematic bias in investor decision-making. This article focuses on the Capital Gain Overhang (CGO) factor, specifically designed to quantify this behavioral bias. Using the Taiwan equity market as a case study, we examine CGO’s predictive power as a stock selection indicator and evaluate its practical value through empirical analysis.

In the world of investing, accurate predictions and systematic analysis are key to achieving long-term success. Strategists who can decipher market trends become sought-after figures for investors eager to learn. Michael Sivy is undoubtedly one of the best. With precise market forecasts and unique investment insights, he has built a stellar reputation in the U.S. investment community. From warning of the 1987 stock market crash to predicting a market turnaround in 1995 and foreseeing the bursting of the tech bubble in 1999, Sivy has demonstrated exceptional market foresight through decades of research and hands-on experience. His book, The Rule of 72, has become a must-read classic, offering systematic analysis and clear guidelines for investors of all types.

In investment decision-making, price-volume factors are essential for investors to gain insights into market behavior. The relationship between price and trading volume supply and demand dynamics of an asset also reveals capital flows and shifts in market sentiment. These factors play a crucial role in capturing short-term opportunities and identifying potential risks in asset allocation.

This series of articles uses Alphalens to examine the application and effectiveness of various factors in the market. In previous articles, we analyzed "foreign capital factors," exploring how foreign investments influence the market. This article will focus on "value factors," examining valuation-related indicators that reveal intrinsic value and affect long-term returns. You can use the alphalens-tej tool within TQuant Lab. This tool not only integrates TEJ data but also eliminates tedious data processing, allowing you to easily assess factor performance and further support the development of investment strategies.

what is the right way to invest? If you’ve had the same doubts, you’re not alone. While seeking answers, I stumbled upon a term that was entirely new to me: quantitative finance. Learning this field helps resolve personal financial challenges and enhances career competitiveness. More importantly, it sharpens your logical thinking and data analysis skills—benefits that are hard to overlook. TQuant Lab provides everything you need to get started efficiently and effectively. Let’s embark on this journey together and explore the endless possibilities of quantitative trading!

This series of articles will use Alphalens to explore several key factors, gradually analyzing their impact on market performance. The first article focuses on "foreign capital," examining the effects of foreign capital flows into the market. Next, we'll delve into "value factors," studying how they reflect a company's intrinsic value. Finally, the last article will analyze "price-volume factors," uncovering the interplay between price and trading volume.